SBY choice of non-partisan VP candidate could reformat Indonesian politics - UPDATED Boediono appointment
Perspektif Online
12 May 2009
UPDATES
The Jakarta Globe: 'PKS,PAN,PPP and PKB might leave SBY. A coalition with Gerindra would increase their share of the pie to 28.5 percent of the national vote or 34 percent of the 560 House seats, more or less on par with the strength of a Democrats-PDI-P coalition. ' (WW comment: no worries)
SBY choice of non-partisan VP candidate could reformat Indonesian politics
by Wimar Witoelar
The choice of Boediono as vice presidential candidate on the SBY ticket could awaken middle-class moderates to the fact that they are a real factor in the direction of the nation. The old conventional wisdom says that Golkar and PDIP are secular and pluralist and that PKS hold the banner of sectarian politics with PKB and PAN collecting the milder form of Islamism. The results of the parliamentary elections allay fears of fundamentalism as the secular parties outnumber the sectarian by a wide margin.
But there are other important issues which are more instrumental in efforts to improve the standard of living in Indonesia. Corruption, bureaucracy, human rights are clearly the prime enemies of the civil society. Yet at the emotional level where political gut instincts are formed, the specter of radical religion is far more ominous to the endemic disease of corruption. This hampers reform, because you almost have to choose between clean government and freedom from extremism.
Commentators to my previous postings here in PO and also in Facebook have given valuable perspectives that are somewhat different from mine. Obviously each carries its own validity. Tom Pepinsky in Facebook shared his astute insight. While he is optimistic that Indonesia will remain secular, it is alarming to him that Golkar and PDIP lost strength while PKS remained stable. Furthermore, PD is overly reliant on SBY while secular/nationalist heavyweights are in the declining parties. It is a shame, I thought, that we have to rely on Golkar and PDIP stalwarts to defend secular pluralism. Pepinsky adds the concern that when SBY is unable to run again in 2014, PKS will be well placed to take over.”
The nice thing about political predictions is that you do not have to argue against them. If you don’t like pessimistic outlooks, just make sure they do not come true. Otherwise they become self-fulfilling prophecies.
You do need to get involved if you do not like the doomsday scenarios. It is not a matter of believing the political forecasts or not but of working to make them not come true. Still in Facebook, a commentator who prefers to remain anonymous noted that while he thinks many overestimate the strength of the Islamists, he is starting to rethink his confidence. Although Indonesian voters time and again vote for secular parties, the PKS keeps inching forward while Golkar and PDIP keep receding. My own thoughts are more optimistic..The choice of Boediono as vice presidential candidate may be seen as a signal that SBY is closing ranks with the secularists. Remember that while SBY-JK has been weak against the anti-pornography bill and other pet issues of the Islamist right, PDIP has been strong and consistent in defense of pluralism and secularism.
We at Perspektif Online have our own party called Partai Orang Biasa (Ordinary People’s Party) which was declared on December 4, 1999 in the Niaga Building in Jakarta. Wimar Witoelar, Dede Basri and Fadjrul Rahman spoke at the event and Munir received the first ‘POB Award’. It was never registered but POB has remained ephemerally strong. The launch was attended by people from all walks of life including Sri Mulyani, Arifin Panigoro, Eros Djarot, Benjamin Mangkudilaga, Faisal Basri, the late Munir, Albert Hasibian, Slamet Rahardjo, Teten Masduki (please write in, you who are unnamed in this posting) . PO has stood for pluralist values as witnessed in this blog.
The last weeks we have been advocating a nonpartisan professional for VP. SBY can no longer rely on Golkar. True, Golkar is a guarantee against Islamists, but they are also apologists for corruption and administrative landlords. The choice of a non-party clean person will help strengthen the true base against sectarianism, the middle class moderates. If enough middle class moderates types strengthen the PD voter base (without necessarily becoming members of PD) then the Golkar hold on secular votes will be broken. The PDIP move away from Golkar helps to build up the new non-traditional secular base.
Westerners tend to believe conventional dichotomies which overestimate PKS and Islamists. Indonesian moderates unfamiliar with the insides of the Islamist political elites sometimes follow that thinking. They are also resigned to past political patterns and unaware of the new political generation. We at PO believe in a groundswell of political awareness in the moderate middle-class that has not asserted itself. Electoral politics opens the doors to a new middle-class empowerment.
Use your imagination and mull over the following diagram on the reformatting of Indonesian politics.
15 Comments: